ICOs: investment spikes in time
I’ve compiled some data about ICONOMI’s ICO timeline as well as those of other current and past ICOs in my other articles:
ICONOMI timeline
Some other current ICO timelines
Some other past ICO timelines
Let’s try to draw some common traits and conclusions. The most notable common trait of all these ICOs is that there are two periods when most investment happens: the very end of the investment period (the “final spike”), and the end of the investment period with the biggest discount or bonus (the “bonus spike”). All mentioned ICOs had such a period at the beginning of the total investment period, typically lasting a week.
There is often also a third spike (let’s call it “initial spike”), at the very beginning of the investment period. Ethereum had a strong initial spike, as big as the bonus spike; The DAO had a smaller initial spike, and ICONOMI had none.
BTW, to quickly see the periods of most investment for funding in BTC, you can use Blockchain.info’s charts — click the chart icon next to “Total received” on the crowdfund address page. Here’s the link for ICONOMI (unfortunately not functional at time of publication):
The determining factor for whether the final or the bonus spike is bigger seems to be, as expected, the size of the bonus in the largest bonus period.
Here are the highest (initial period) bonuses and lengths, compared to the final period amounts, for the ICOs:
DECENT: ~67% (+ 50% bonus, not clear?), 1 day
Synereo: 21–39 %, 1 day
The DAO: 50%, 14 days
Ethereum: ~50%, 14 days
Augur: 15%, 5 days
ICONOMI: 15%, 7 days
In The DAO’s and Ethereum’s token sales (50% initial bonus), the bonus spikes were much bigger than final spikes. In ICONOMI’s (15% initial bonus), the final spike is bigger. (Unfortunately, I currently don’t have access to Augur’s ICO timeline; will update when I get this data.)
This seems to predict that DECENT with its extremely high first-day bonus will not raise as much in the final stage as it did in the beginning, as for Synereo it is hard to say which spike will be bigger, though the current timeline shape seems to indicate a relatively very large initial spike.
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